Choices for work and family policy in low fertility BRI Emerging Markets in Southeast Asia
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Emerging markets benefit significantly from their demographic circumstances, particularly during the "demographic dividend" phase, characterized by declining fertility rates and high old-age mortality. This phase creates a substantial working-age population that, when coupled with employment opportunities, human capital investment, and gender equity, can stimulate economic growth. However, this demographic window is temporary, as many emerging markets, including China with a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.0, face low fertility and rapid aging, leading to potential population decline. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) relies on these markets, yet many are transitioning to similarly low fertility rates, diminishing their demographic advantages. Southeast Asia, a critical region for the BRI, illustrates these trends, with countries experiencing some of the lowest fertility rates globally. In response, governments have implemented various pronatalist policies, although their effectiveness is debated. Our recent research in China employed a discrete choice experiment to assess married women's preferences for family formation policies, revealing that gender equity in the workplace is vital for meeting reproductive aspirations. We propose to replicate this study in other Southeast Asian emerging markets to compare low-fertility settings, focusing on urban areas. By utilizing a validated questionnaire and engaging local participants, we aim to understand better the dynamics of fertility intentions and the impact of policy interventions in diverse demographic contexts. This research seeks to inform policies that adequately address the underlying causes of low fertility while promoting sustainable economic and social development.
Principal Investigator (PI): Stuart Gietel-Basten
Department/ Division: Public Policy
This project is funded by the HKUST IEMS Research Grants 2025.
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